From April 2018, the position of the President of Armenia will be largely a ceremonial role, with executive power being exercised by the Prime Minister. Politicians having served two consecutive terms in one position but still willing to stay at power frequently take an attempt to provoke constitutional reforms of this kind. Leaders of Montenegro and Turkey can serve an example. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has successfully tested the similar scheme and has legally been at the helm for 15 years and obviously he is not going to finish his career this way.
It is quite clear that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is going to take the PM chair after his party wins the April elections and starts the constitutional reform. However, he may not succeed.
A young and extremely ambitious Defense Minister Vigen Sargsyan is at the back of the pack. The career ladder of this politician leads him directly to the position of the head of the executive branch. He is close to the acting president, who seems to be preparing Vigen to become his successor. Moreover Serzh Sargsyan once served as the Minister of Defense too. The change of generations should happen in the next electoral term otherwise the government form change is senseless.
Vigen can think in another way. Instead of the position of the Minister of Foreign Affairs he may aim at the position of the head of the Government. The Members of the Parliament, not the people are to vote for a candidate to become the next PM.
The experience of Sargsyan as a manager and a carpet knight is useful here. He has spent most of his life working on the political proscenium sidelines. He was aware of intrigues and participated in the games behind the backs of his superiors. Such a person knows weaknesses and preferences of many politicians. He may use his experience and try to convince the MPs to appoint him as the Prime Minister instead of elderly Serzh Sargsyan.
In addition, Vigen Sargsyan has mastered president’s nature, his strengths and weaknesses all too well. According to a number of Internet sources, the current Defense Minister of the Republic of Armenia was previously engaged in extortions for him and his masters. He knows every corruption scheme, blunder and secret of the whole presidential court, which Serzh Sargsyan naturally keeps under lock and key.
Now comes the time when Vigen Sargsyan can pull out all his best cards and make the outgoing Armenian president play by his rules. Time will tell whether it happens.
According to other sources, Vigen is a protégé of the United States. Theoretically he could be recruited by the U.S. intelligence services during his study at Harvard. He is said to have provided Washington with intelligence on Armenia. However, the Americans could also give Vigen the information that could compromise the reputation of Serzh Sargsyan. In such case, the rapid career growth as well as the president’s sympathy may be stem from corny blackmail.
On the eve of voting, no one can prevent the minister from using the accumulated baggage of information against his patron. According to the media, Vigen Sargsyan was already playing a double game during the years of the president’s confrontation against Tsarukyan, an Armenian businessman. The current Defense Minister of the Republic of Armenia worked for Tsarukyan, rightly believing that if he wins the latter he will receive a higher position under the new president.
Then Vigen Sargsyan got away with it, why not raise the stakes right now, because the chair of the executive branch is at stake.
